The EU Green Book - A big step towards energy security

The International Herald Tribune echoes voices from the past arguing for a closer focus on Energy Security in Europe, in the July 16 article ?A slippery European energy outlook?. But these voices represent the thinking that created the security problem in the first place. Energy security is, no doubt, of paramount interest, but it is necessary to understand that the first step in creating a truly secure system is to reduce the demand says Hans Nilsson and Rod Janssen.

The new EU-commissioner, Andris Pielbags, has understood something that his predecessor did not. Energy security depends on the amount of energy you use. The less you demand the easier it is to supply and find different sources for the supply. Further the less you use the less is the impact on environment and the easier it is to find renewable (environmentally friendly) sources. Therefore it is possible to meet more than one objective at the same time if you choose the right measures. It is possible to kill more than one bird with one stone - if you pick the right stone. The stone he has chosen is ?Energy Efficiency? and has turned the course radically in his directorate in Brussels, which can be seen in the recently published green book ?Doing more with less?. And therefore the European road is far from being slippery.

This strategy certainly allows for countries to act according to their own circumstances and use the resources they have rather than harmonising to a common mean. Let them adhere to a common functional target like 25% renewables for electricity and let the Nordic countries use their vast forests and the southern their abundant sun for the purpose. The IEA has successfully for over 30 years applied a functional target for their oil reserves and it works.

Many of the voices in the International Herald Tribune are echoes of the past. Asking for strategies where countries and regions try to get access to other countries resources instead of getting out of the dependence of fossil fuels. Claiming that focusing on energy security excludes solving e.g. the environmental problems instead of recognising the enormous potential for energy efficiency. Demanding more of vulnerable infrastructure connections instead of introducing demand response from the customers to avoid perilous overload in energy systems. All that belongs to the forces that created the problems we have today with over consumption and dependence of outdated technologies. If there ever was a slippery road this was the one.

Commissioner Pielbags has certainly a heavy task before him but he has started very well.

Hans Nilsson
Stockholm, Sweden

Rod Janssen
HELIO International, Paris, France

Klandra inte spegeln om Du inte gillar bilden

Då och då kommer det kraftig kritik mot de energiscenarier som till exempel IEA publicerar i sina årliga skrifter. Som senast den här från en organisation som heter Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) och har skrivit en rapport med det klatschiga namnet “Off Track”.

The International Energy Agency has wrongly guided governments into decisions about oil, gas and coal use that are inconsistent with the long-term climate objectives of the Paris Agreement

Men är det sant? Är det IEA som vilseleder? Så här förklarar IEA hur scenarierna konstrueras (jämför med bild nedan)

- New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

- 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.

Två av de scenarier som presenteras är alltså reflexioner av vad som händer i världen och det som är på väg att hända till följd av de beslut som fattats i olika beslutsorgan (länder, samarbetsorganisationer mm). Det är bilder INTE rekommendationer!

Om vi inte gillar det vi ser måste vi kanske rätta till de egna anletsdragen. Men klandra inte spegeln!


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