Viktigt meddelande till regeringsförhandlarna

Vi har anledning att tro att tidigare regeringar (oavsett kulör) haft svårt att hantera frågan om energieffektviseringens konsekvenser för statsbudgeten. Vi antar att tjänstemän på finansdepartementet och vissa av myndigheterna haft svårt att se de positiva effekterna och mest sett effektvisering som en extra börda som man endast undantagsvis kan ta på sig.

Vi vill därför varmt rekommendera läsning av IEAs senaste rapportCapturing the multiple benefits of energy efficiency”, särskilt kapitel 3 som handlar om inverkan pÃ¥ “Public Budget”. För att underlätta läsningen Ã¥terger vi deras viktigaste resultat här:

â– â–  By providing a more rigorous means of quantifying and monetising benefits that affect public expenditures and revenues, the multiple benefits approach corrects the misperception that energy efficiency programmes fall exclusively on the cost side of public budgets.
â– â–  Investment in energy efficiency holds potential to deliver additional tax revenue, provide higher returns on investment, and lower the costs of unemployment and social Welfare programmes.
â– â–  Application of energy efficiency within the public sector itself delivers substantial cost savings through lower energy consumption, by expanding markets for energy efficient goods and services, and by reducing the fiscal drain of energy subsidies. Along with increased tax Revenues from greater spending by the general public, lower public health spending and reduced investment in energy infrastructure, these effects can offset any lost revenues from energy excise duty and carbon taxes.
â– â–  A comprehensive benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for public budgets requires separate estimations of the cost reductions and changes to revenues; several existing modelling methods can be used to integrate these two elements into a final tally.
â– â–  At present, data are lacking for the positive impacts of energy efficiency in the public sector; as a result, policy impact assessments risk being incomplete and biased against energy efficiency programmes.
â– â–  A recent study of macroeconomic impacts from energy efficiency renovation of public Buildings in the European Union showed that an annual investment of USD 56 billion through 2020 could create 760 000 jobs each year, delivering a net annual improvement to public budgets of between USD 41 billion and USD 56 billion. When broader benefits were taken into account, the figures more than doubled (USD 91 billion to USD 174 billon).

Klandra inte spegeln om Du inte gillar bilden

DÃ¥ och dÃ¥ kommer det kraftig kritik mot de energiscenarier som till exempel IEA publicerar i sina Ã¥rliga skrifter. Som senast den här frÃ¥n en organisation som heter Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) och har skrivit en rapport med det klatschiga namnet “Off Track”.

The International Energy Agency has wrongly guided governments into decisions about oil, gas and coal use that are inconsistent with the long-term climate objectives of the Paris Agreement

Men är det sant? Är det IEA som vilseleder? Så här förklarar IEA hur scenarierna konstrueras (jämför med bild nedan)

- New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

- 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.

Två av de scenarier som presenteras är alltså reflexioner av vad som händer i världen och det som är på väg att hända till följd av de beslut som fattats i olika beslutsorgan (länder, samarbetsorganisationer mm). Det är bilder INTE rekommendationer!

Om vi inte gillar det vi ser måste vi kanske rätta till de egna anletsdragen. Men klandra inte spegeln!

 

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