Statoil har publicerat sin marknadsutblick för 2017 där de har tre scenarier (se rubrik och bild nedan) för att illustrera vart utvecklingen kan ta vägen.

En poäng är att de också i sina scenarier visar hur samhällena skulle kunna se ut i de olika fallen.

Reform: market forces coexist with climate policies
In this year’s Reform, the NDCs (still) form the backbone of fundamental transformations in the energy industry, but it is assumed that only those changes that can be accomplished through market-optimal, non-subsidized investments are sustained.

Renewal: a pathway to energy sustainability
The Renewal scenario focuses on developments that combine to deliver an energy-related CO2 trajectory that is consistent with a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 2°. ....Renewal plays out in a benign geopolitical environment where cooperation, not competition, drives policy.

Rivalry: a multipolar world
Rivalry portrays a multipolar world where populist, nationalist, inward-looking and short-term priorities direct policy making, where climate scepticism runs high and where disorder, conflict and power struggle apply at the expense of cooperation and trust.

I den kommentar från Statoil som publiceras i Euractiv sägs:

Energy efficiency: “The one most important factor”
“We have to decouple GDP growth from energy demand growth, we think. And it might be impossible. But it’s a huge challenge, and that’s what we do in the renewal scenario,”

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