IEA prognos eller scenario?
Financial Times har en artikel som diskuterar att IEA i sina publikationer konsekvent missar den explosiva utvecklingen av förnybar energi och då särskilt solceller. Till IEAs försvar sägs att deras skrivningar inte är prognoser utan scenarier och att de som regel visar flera olika scenarier som vart och ett baseras på olika möjliga utvecklingar. De bör därför läsas inte som utsagor om framtiden utan som skisser av möjligheter.
Till det kan sägas att IEA i sina årliga skrifter WEO (World Energy Outlook) och ETP (Energy Technology Perspectives) haft en envis förmåga att undvika att använda sina egna publicerade rön om marknadens lärande. Det har ibland lite karaktär av “not invented here” även om det (för att låna Tage Danilessons ord) var just där det hände!
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