Renoveringar på djupet (och bredden)

IEAs DSM-University ordnar ett webinarium den 23 november kl 15 på temat
Building Deep Energy Retrofit: Using Dynamic Cash Flow Analysis and Multiple Benefits to Convince Investors

Föreläsare är Jan Bleyl som är projektledare för IEA-DSM projektet “Innovative Energy Services”. Han kommer i sin presentation att gå både på djupet (hur renoveringar skall bli mera heltäckande och därmed uthålliga) och bredden (hur de skall kunna ta upp PLUS-värden, Multiple Bnefits, som hänger samman med effektviseringen).

Deep energy retrofit (DER) of the existing building stock is a meaningful strategy to reduce fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. However, the investment volumes required to undertake DER are enormous. In Europe, cumulative demand for DER is estimated at close to 1,000 billion EUR until 2050. Public expenditures and political measures can help to stimulate DER, but substantial private investments are required to achieve significant results.

In this presentation, we analyze the economic and financial implications for investors renovating an office building to the ‘Passive House’ standard. This is achieved by applying a dynamic Life Cycle Cost & Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to model the cash flows (CF). The model also includes an appraisal of debt and equity-financing implications, and a multi-parameter sensitivity analysis to analyze impacts of input parameter deviations. In the second part of the paper, we use the ‘Multiple Benefits’ (MB) concept to identify project-based co-benefits of DER, to make the business case more attractive. We categorize the identified MBs in: 1) monetary, 2) un-quantified project, and 3) societal benefits.

Results show that the DER project cash flow over a 25-year period achieves a 21-year dynamic payback with an IRR of below 2%. Levelized Cost of Heat Savings is 100 EUR/MWh with a 70% capital expenditure and 15% interest cost share. The Loan Life Cover Ratio comes out to 1,2. To make the business case more attractive, pecuniary MBs identified are increased rents, real estate values, (employee) productivity, and maintenance costs and CO2 savings, in addition to societal benefits.

Compared to simpler economic modeling, the dynamic LCCBA cash flow model provides solid grounds for DER business case analysis, project structuring and financial engineering, but also for policy design. CFs from future energy cost savings alone are often insufficient in convincing investors. However, they can co-finance DER investments substantially. Consideration of MBs can offer meaningful monetary contributions, and also help to identify strategic allies for project implementation; however, the ‘split incentive’ dilemma is still present/ requires differentiation between tenants and different types of investors. Furthermore, the approach supports policy makers to develop policy measures needed to achieve 2050 goals.

Klandra inte spegeln om Du inte gillar bilden

Då och då kommer det kraftig kritik mot de energiscenarier som till exempel IEA publicerar i sina årliga skrifter. Som senast den här från en organisation som heter Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) och har skrivit en rapport med det klatschiga namnet “Off Track”.

The International Energy Agency has wrongly guided governments into decisions about oil, gas and coal use that are inconsistent with the long-term climate objectives of the Paris Agreement

Men är det sant? Är det IEA som vilseleder? Så här förklarar IEA hur scenarierna konstrueras (jämför med bild nedan)

- New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

- 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.

Två av de scenarier som presenteras är alltså reflexioner av vad som händer i världen och det som är på väg att hända till följd av de beslut som fattats i olika beslutsorgan (länder, samarbetsorganisationer mm). Det är bilder INTE rekommendationer!

Om vi inte gillar det vi ser måste vi kanske rätta till de egna anletsdragen. Men klandra inte spegeln!


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