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I USA finns The Edison Foundation som är en sammanslutning av de större energiföretagen och som har tagit sig uppgiften att studera:
* information on technology trends,
* experiences with new technology, and
* best practices among electric utility industry executives

De samlade några av sina tankar nyligen i publikationen “Key Trends Driving Change in the Electric Power Industry” med de teman som syns i bilden nedan. Deras chef, Lisa Woods, sammanfattar dessa tre megatrender:

The transition to a clean energy future
The energy mix we use to generate electricity is changing. By investing in renewable energy, transitioning from coal to natural gas, and pursuing energy efficiency, the U.S. electric power industry has already reduced carbon dioxide emissions 15 percent below 2005 levels; other emissions have also been reduced. At the same time, modernization and digitization of the grid enables the integration of more carbon-free renewables, both large-scale and distributed. In fact, we expect exponential growth in solar over the next decade, in all sizes. Wind energy, already competitive with other fuels, is projected to increase substantially as tower heights increase to produce more energy. Today, the electric power industry
is the largest investor in carbonfree renewable energy in the U.S.

A more digital and distributed grid
The power grid itself is changing, becoming “smarter” by virtue of a digital communication overlay, with millions of sensors that will make the grid more controllable and potentially self-healing. The electric power industry is investing more than $20 billion per year in the distribution grid alone, which will enable the connection of distributed energy resources as well as devices in our homes and businesses. Many of these resources and devices will interact with the grid, resulting in more efficient grid operations. The digital grid is evolving into a multipath network of power and information flows that will use data analytics for grid management and optimization from end-to-end.

Individualized customer services
As the grid becomes increasingly digital and distributed, customization of services for electricity customers will continue to grow. Here are some examples. Large commercial customers increasingly want renewable energy to meet their corporate sustainability goals. Cities and towns are requesting customized services such as help with micro-grids, smart city services, or renewable energy. Some residential customers want rooftop solar to generate their own electricity. And, residential customers increasingly want to manage their energy use using connected
devices like iPhones and Nest Learning Thermostats, and through web-based platforms. At the same time, for many, many customers, safe, reliable, and affordable electricity will continue to
be the preferred service option.


Klandra inte spegeln om Du inte gillar bilden

Då och då kommer det kraftig kritik mot de energiscenarier som till exempel IEA publicerar i sina årliga skrifter. Som senast den här från en organisation som heter Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) och har skrivit en rapport med det klatschiga namnet “Off Track”.

The International Energy Agency has wrongly guided governments into decisions about oil, gas and coal use that are inconsistent with the long-term climate objectives of the Paris Agreement

Men är det sant? Är det IEA som vilseleder? Så här förklarar IEA hur scenarierna konstrueras (jämför med bild nedan)

- New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

- 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.

Två av de scenarier som presenteras är alltså reflexioner av vad som händer i världen och det som är på väg att hända till följd av de beslut som fattats i olika beslutsorgan (länder, samarbetsorganisationer mm). Det är bilder INTE rekommendationer!

Om vi inte gillar det vi ser måste vi kanske rätta till de egna anletsdragen. Men klandra inte spegeln!


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